The more we tested, though, the more we discovered that two things were really good against the field: Lobotomy and permission. Lobotomy, if successful, decimates a lot of the combo type decks, which seemed to be the best of the field. But permission (usually) stops Lobotomy.
Now, some history. Up to and during Regionals, I had been playing a CounterPhoenix deck. I decided against it for Type 2 because it just plain lost to Sligh. But I started thinking about Rath Cycle and realized that Sligh was a lot worse--in particular, the Wall-heavy environment would probably mean less people would play it, and the lack of good Celerity creatures (Ball Lightning and Viashino Sanstalker in particular) and Fireblast made Sligh much less threatening to the combination of permission and the Phoenix.
Armed with this idea (and knowing nothing about Erik Lauer's worlds deck), I went and put together a Rath CounterPhoenix deck. I played it at our normal Tuesday night Watchmen playing nights, and it fared pretty well but still needed work. I changed it around a bit and took it with me the next night when I went to play with Team CMU. Randy pulled out a deck, and it was... a CounterPhoenix deck. I had no idea. The CMU "Forbidden Phoenix" deck was, of course, better than the one I had. Team CMU and Team Watchmen drafted together the following Tuesday, and spent some time between rounds and afterwards discussing the deck and its sideboard. Randy and Erik were taking the deck to GP Boston, and my teammate Aaron, Team CMU's Dan Silberman, and I all took the deck (or a near variant) to the Columbus PTQ.
Game 1: I Intuition'd early for Phoenix, and started to apply. I burned him with Shocks whenever possible, and managed to stay just a bit ahead in this one. He got down a Humility and a Grindstone, and I got three Phoenixes on the table and a Searing Touch going. I managed to pull off the win a few turns before he decked me.
Game 2: I sided out all the burn, figuring I needed Shattering Pulses to try to keep the Grindstones off, and the Wastelands to try to both stay ahead in the counter wars and possibly color-screw him. I lost this game on a critical mistake. I had Intuition'd for Phoenix and had a Forbid in hand, hoping to keep him in that lock and beat him up with a Phoenix. He cast Lobotomy. I miscounted my land, and rather than using the Forbid in my hand I countered with Dismiss, figuring if he countered I could Forbid. Frankly, I should just have used Forbid anyway, since that way no matter what happened with the Lobotomy he couldn't get that. But, I got greedy (I wanted the card from the Dismiss) and careless, and of course he had a counter so he ended up countering the Dismiss and killing all my Forbids. Without Forbid, it was going to be an uphill battle against all his permission and the Grindstones, and I just couldn't manage it.
Game 3: I didn't get a good draw in terms of permission, and it just didn't come. I did manage to get multiple Phoenixes on the table and went into beatdown mode, and managed to Shattering Pulse one Grindstone before being Lobotomized for the Pulses. I kept beating, getting him down to 5 (despite the Humility) before the Orim's Prayer hit. The counter battle over that left me tapped out, and somehow he wasn't. He again Lobotomized me for Forbid, and that was pretty much it.
Matches 0-1, games 1-2.
Game 1: At this point, of course, I didn't know what I was up against. I got a great opening draw with four land, a 2-CC counter, and two Intuitions. His first turn was Forest, done, and I guessed a Living Death style deck. He dropped a Wall of Blossoms and during his discard I Intuitioned for Phoenix. Next turn another Wall, and I Intuitioned for Forbid. He got to the point where he could have cast a Living Death, but realized that would bring back two Phoenix, which would clear the board anyway. I got the land I needed and had him in the Forbid/Phoenix soft lock and he conceded.
Game 2: A little more interesting, in that he Mox'd out a Survival on turn 1. I suspected that meant he would eventually tutor for a Scragnoth. I, however, again had a 2-Intuition draw and brought a Phoenix into my hand (and two in the graveyard). He got a Hermit Druid out, which is bad because it gives his deck the ability to never miss a land drop, which is big against all the permission. I let him have it, and burned an Interdict to stop his first thaw. He dropped another one which I didn't counter. Next turn I cast a Phoenix and killed both of the Druids. I was planning to Intuit for Forbid again, but he did the right thing and tutored for a Scragnoth and cast it. He beat me down to 11 with the Scragnoth. Ugh. I brought a Phoenix back from my graveyard and Intuitioned for a Shock. Yes, a Shock. I blew up the Phoenix and Shocked the Scragnoth. As long as he didn't have another, I figured I would be safe. I again got out a Phoenix, and then another. He got down a Tradewind and attempted to use Recurring Nightmare, but I Interdicted it--some good. I drew a Forbid and applied with both Phoenixes. He tried to cast a couple things, which I Forbade with buyback and he knew he was in a near-lock with three turns to live, so he conceded.
Matches 1-1, games 3-2.
Game 1: He dropped a Vineyard on turn 1. I wasn't sure what I was going to do with that little surprise, but it did allow me to Intuition on the first turn. I took some early beatings but had a Capsize, which is pretty good with a Vineyard out. The second Vineyard and my drawing the Searing Touch meant I could do all kinds of things on each turn. I finally blew up all the fat with multiple Phoenixes and a Searing Touch, and by then had enough Islands to start really using permission.
Game 2: I sided out all four Shocks for the three Searing Touches and a Wall. My opening hand was land and counters--not a good place for Vineyard mana, which he dropped turn 1 without waiting for me to make a decision on mulligan or not. I took a mulligan, and drew an Intuition, a Searing Touch, a Capsize, and three land. Much better. Another early Intuition for Phoenix, but he got out two early Canopy Spiders, which make the Phoenix less effective. He then dropped a card I didn't care for, a Jinxed Idol. Ugh. Basically, I had to take two from the Idol and bounce a Phoenix, cast the Phoenix, then sac it to the Idol. Then he'd cast something, and sac it to the Idol. I eventually drew enough land and permission to counter his creature casting and start the Phoenix beating--with me at 2 life. I won it, but it was a close one.
Matches 2-1, games 5-2.
Game 1: When he dropped a Forest on the first turn, I figured it was another standard Living Death deck, so I thought the early Intuition for Phoenix and another for Forbid would be good. But I got "stuck" on six land--I know that sounds funny, but the deck doesn't work very well on only six land, and he got down two 3-toughness dudes (a Weaver and a Mindless Automaton with a counter on it), which are hard to kill with only one Phoenix at a time. I figured that was an unusual draw, though, and that I could probably win the next two.
Game 2: He got out a Turn 2 Survival, which I figured could lead to Scragnoth problems. This never materialized. My memory for this game is fuzzy--I had some trouble drawing permission and did manage to get beat down a bit until I could get out and explode double Phoenix. He did, however, manage to get out an Earthcraft and a Scroll Rack. I finally drew a Forbid, and I thought I had it since he had no creatures on the board and I had two Phoenixes out and he was at 4. He dropped an Oath of Ghouls, which I Forbid--Oath of Ghouls wrecks me. But I had to tap out to do it, and that was a huge mistake because he also had a Recurring Nightmare in his hand with the mana to use it. Dumb, dumb, dumb. On his last turn to live, the combo went off and I got killed by 7 Mogg Fanatic hits. Foolish of me.
Matches 2-2, games 5-4. At this point I was mathematically eliminated, but I felt like staying in.
Game 1: I did a really, really dumb thing and took a draw with only a Lake as a source of Blue. This was bad, as I just couldn't draw an Island or a Pool to save my life, which meant his turn 5 (or was it 6) Wyvern went uncountered. I held it off for a while with Phoenix recursion, but couldn't ever get two of them out on the table at a time and got killed by the Wyvern.
Game 2: He was playing without sleeves and I watched him sideboard, putting his sideboard cards in the opposite orientation from the rest of his deck. He finished, and looked up and (I believed) realized I had been watching him, and so reversed his sideboard cards before shuffling--so he didn't actually cheat (that I know of), but it certainly seemed suspicious to me.
Anyway, the match. I got Forbid/Phoenix going, but he got Volrath's/Thrull Surgeon going, so I had to Forbid and buyback, then recurse two Phoenixes each turn. He decided, since I had Intuitioned a couple times, that he could deck me with this strategy. He looked at his watch repeatedly and didn't exactly stall, but didn't play especially quickly. I finally had enough mana on the table so I could Forbid twice, recurse two Phoenixes, and cast a Phoenix so I could cast them both and go into beatdown mode. Around this time, head judge and straight-up guy Mike Guptil came by and told us that other judges had observed slow play and asked us to pick up the pace. The game was pretty much over, so we went to game 3.
Game 3: We were told we had like 12 minutes for the game. Ugh. I took my opening draw because it had a Phoenix in it--I figured my only chance was to cast Phoenix and go into beatdown mode, and worry about board control after that. That went, and I got an Intuition off so I was hoping to bring up more beatings but I got Lobotomized for the Phoenix in my hand, which also plucked them from my graveyard. I applied with the Phoenix every turn, and he got out a Legacy's allure (I had an Interdict in my hand, though), but he got out a Bottle Gnomes. Ugh--that means I'd need a couple extra turns to kill him, and time was called. However, the judge ruled that because of the slow play in game 2, we would get three extra turns without time limits, so I got the win here. A squeaker.
Matches 3-2, games 7-5. A fair amount of whining ensued after the extension, but I wasn't surprised by it at all--I've seen identical extensions for slow play in the past. If the head judge gives a caution to both players for slow play and game 3 doesn't finish, it shouldn't be a surprise.
Game 1: I had no idea what to do with this weirdness, saw most of my mountains get slaughtered, and lost horribly mostly to Mogg Fanatic beating.
Game 2: Boarding the Pulses ought to help, and perhaps I could get somewhere in this one. I did manage to get a Phoenix out and Pulse off the Spheres, but he had too much advantage in land and could recurse his Phoenix and do more other things than I, and I eventually got killed by Mogg Fanatics and Ravenous Baboons and an Anarchist.
Matches 3-3, games 7-7.
Land ---- 4 Reflecting Pool 2 Caldera Lake 9 Mountain 14 Island Creatures --------- 4 Shard Phoenix Spells ------ 1 Searing Touch 4 Shock 3 Capsize 4 Intuition 4 Counterspell 4 Mana Leak 4 Forbid 3 Dismiss Sideboard --------- 3 Searing Touch 3 Shattering Pulse 2 Fylamarid 2 Interdict 2 Wall of Tears 3 Wasteland