I'd like to present for discussion and thoughtful examination the idea of the Resource-Denial Strategy as a way of fighting the power T1 decks. I also nicknamed it the "Un-Balance" Strategy, because the idea is to get advantage in land, hand, and creatures -- the three things that Balance equalizes. "Creature" balance is not a major concern here, but the other two are central to the strategy.
Obviously, it would be fanciful to think that any T2 or non-power T1 deck could consistenly beat a power T1 played by an experienced player in a tournament setting. However, I do think it is possible to go a long way towards achieving at least a fighting chance, and a savvy player using this strategy may consistently beat the lower-level "power T1" decks or less experienced players. It is entirely possible that even the power T1's driven by experienced players can be beaten with a healthy bit of luck and extremely skillful play.
Taking its cue from the R/B Bentley Necrodeck, this strategy eschews careful planning for massive early disruption coupled with fast weenies who may score early hits -- enough to make a difference.
The basic principle is as follows.
What distinguishes a power T1 deck from a non-power T1 deck (perhaps one along the Type 1.5 line) or a T2 deck is the advantage in resources: mana, cards, and creatures. Of these, the first is the key advantage conferred by Moxen, Black Lotus, etc. The second is another key advantage, with Ancestral Recall, Timetwister (especially with a Tormod's Crypt), Time Walk (although that does other things as well), and the Library of Alexandria. The third is just a function of the cheaper-cost, more powerful creatures such as the Juzam Djinn, Serendib Efreet, and others. This last advantage is simply too difficult to deal with adequately, while trying to deny the first two. If a first turn Juzam drops, a first-turn Juzam drops -- and the only hope is to pray for good luck and sideboard for the next game.
To combat them, then, it is necessary to attempt to un-balance the resources. Attacking mana and cards is the way in which (for now, let us use T2) a "lower-power" deck can try to compensate for, and indeed gain an advantage over, the power T1 decks.
First, the deck idea. Obviously, this is far from well-tuned, as it represents the first draft of a theory. The T1 version is in brackets for those who can't afford the $50 cards, but could afford the $10-20 cards. There are so many ways it could be improved, I believe, and I would appreciate comments and contributions to doing so.
R/B/g 4 City of Brass [4 City of Brass] 4 Sulfurous Springs [4 Badlands] 2 Lava Tubes [ 10 Swamps 4 Strip Mine 20 mana, 24 with Strip Mine (which are not expected to be used for mana) 4 Lightning Bolt 4 Incinerate 3 Shatter 3 Blood Moon 2 Red Elemental Blast 16 red 2 Black Knights 2 Order of Ebon Hand 1 Mind Twist 3 Hymns to Tourach [2 Hymns to Tourach, 1 Demonic Tutor] 2 Evil Presence [2 Sinkhole, though Evil Presence works just fine too] 10 black 2 Icy Manipulator 3 Black Vise 2 The Rack 1 Jester's Cap 1 Jayemdae Tome [1 Wheel of Fortune] 1 Disrupting Sceptre 10 artifacts Sideboard --------- 2 Fumarole 4 Paralyze (for Djinn decks and such) 2 Winter Orb (for heavy-mana use decks, such as Weissman) 2 Jester's Cap (for decks reliant on locks) 2 REB (for heavy counterspell decks) 1 Anarchy 2 Mole Worm (if opponent plays heavy black, the Evil Presence is useless) Clearly, the deck would benefit from other cards and combinations which are fully possible. A splash of blue for Ancestral, Timewalk, Timetwister would benefit it without question. If some way could be worked out for white -- Disenchant, Land Tax -- that would be excellent as well. The principal idea is to recognize that cheap spells, fast creatures (particularly w/ prot. from white with StP being such a popular spell), and land destruction will help negate the resources and speed of a power T1. The assumption is that not every power T1 will have three moxen and two lands in the initial draw. It happens, but most often, there may be two or three lands and a mox. Also, power T1's do get mana-screwed, possibly more often than non-power T1's, because of the complexity of the strategy often requires three or more colors to run. Blood Moon may not be an automatic win, particularly with moxen, Black Lotus, etc. but if successful, it does slow down the T1 -- and often destroys the strategy of the T1 deck. Strip Mine & REB exist to ensure that the Blood Moon will go through. Also, since counterspelling is almost the hallmark of good T1 decks, the resource-threats such as Evil Presence, Hymn to Tourach, etc. draw the countermagic response. Few counterspell decks will allow a Hymn to go through, and an Evil Presence on a Library of Alexandria is not something most T1 decks will allow. That allows the offensive threats to at least have a chance of coming out -- the Vises, the Racks, the Knights and Orders, the bolts, incinerates, etc. The offensive sources are meant to be as difficult to deal with as possible, and as fast as possible: Vises, bolts & incinerates, critters costing BB with prot. from StP, etc. Are they perfect? Far from it, but better than goblins or even Ernhams? Most of the time, I would think so. In addition, having played T1 for most of my Magic career, I feel that it's a rare _good_ draw to have more than two counterspells in hand. Even with 8 counterspells, it is not necessarily the case that I will be able to counter EVERYTHING. Yes, having a good draw with land, moxen, countermagic, maybe a couple spoilers (Ancestral, Timewalk, etc.), and drawing other "environmental" control threats will most likely mean that the power T1 deck will win. What this strategy counts on is that such a good draw won't happen more than 25-30% of the time. It hopes to capitalize as _much_ as possible on the remaining 70-75% of the time. The discard element exists mostly to draw countermagic. :) However, if successful -- and it is not entirely unthinkable that at least a couple of Hymns or Mind Twist will go through if the opponent is concentrating on Blood Moon and Icy Manipulator, for example -- then the card-advantage of a power T1 is somewhat attenuated. Not necessarily negated, that is true, but at least attenuated. A Disrupting Sceptre (if it comes up) can hopefully ensure some card advantage as well. With the transition over to U/W in a great many T1 decks, speed is a major threat. Though few T1 decks have problems with Black Vise, a first turn Vise is still a first turn Vise, and will usually do at least 5 damage. Assuming that most decks will save countermagic for Blood Moon, Hymns, etc. the bolts and incinerates could conceivably do at least another 6-9 points of damage. A Black Knight getting through for one or two turns does another 2-4, bringing them dangerously close to losing. With some luck, perhaps a Mind Twist and a Rack might finish them off, as would a bolt that gets through, etc. The Jester's Caps exist to 1. draw countermagic, 2. draw disenchant, 3. if successful, eliminate whatever lock-potential cards. Against a Weissman deck, the Serras and Braingeyser are pulled out. Against a Juzam deck, perhaps 3 Juzams. Against a Kim deck... well, that's least vulnerable, but at least 3 Mana Drains or Jade Statues or Rasputin or somebody. :) Nonetheless, the Caps do help against many power T1's, removing at least the dangerous spoilers (if successful) such as Time Walk, Mind Twist, etc. Clearly, there are some decks -- such as the Chang deck -- which are more or less natural predators of this strategy. Blood Moon will hardly bother it, and the Chang deck is faster at dealing out damage and playing out resources. In those cases, one can only hope for luck to be on one's side. But against many poorly-constructed T1 decks, relying on U/W defense and some development of environmental control, it is not inconceivable that this strategy will consistently reap rewards. Even against a Chang deck... if luck smiles on thee, well, who knows? Again, it goes without saying that a true power T1 deck, played by an experienced player, which gets a good draw, will be next to impossible to beat by this type of a strategy. It is also clear that there are many, many ways to screw this strategy badly. A Moat + CoP: Red and some counterspells will mostly likely spell the end of this deck. However, if the goal is merely to be competitive as possible, than this focus on resource denial may be the way to achieve maximum potential for victory. Plus, there are few pleasures greater than winning against someone's spoiler-laden T1 deck with a T2 deck. :) There is no glory for your opponent if he wins, but the reverse is always admired. As this is merely the beginning, I hope to expand this with more comments from those with experience with "giant-killing" play. May the Goddess Fortuna smile upon thee! -rsh