Subject: Reprint prices Date: Fri, 29 May 1998 20:09:50 -0500 From: Lost in Cyberspace To: fkusumot@ix.netcom.com I just read your response to reprint prices and I'd like to take a moment to respond. Let's begin with the premise of why the older power cards would be reprinted. Collectors wouldn't want them (at least not badly). The purpose would be to give players who have recently started playing the game (say, withing the last couple years) to play T1 caliber decks. I fully understand that prices would drop if the reprinted power cards were sought for *general* (read: T2) gameplay purposes. However, they are not. Plus, reprinting them in a basic set or expansion would make WotC once again alter its "tournament legality" rules and reintroduce the banned/restricted list to the T2 environment. I don't think they would find the task of satiating the players' desires worth the hassle of redesigning the environment. Even if they were to reprint those cards, I highly doubt that they *would* put them in a basic edition. It would be more like a Chronicals-type set (with a limited printing) that wasn't legal in Standard format. While the P9 reprints might not fetch the 2/3 "original" value I mentioned (for the Lotus), they would probably be extremely rare, even for a larger print run. So while the cards might not go for $200, they'd still probably hit at around $50. And for those players who begin playing down the road when even the reprints are OOPs, the price would probably be up in the $100 range. Now, you're probably thinking that even a $50 starting valuation is high, I can tell you I've probably spent $1,500 on Magic cards in the past year and I still don't have a complete set of the basic edition (or any expansion set, either). I'll drop $150-$250 easily per expansion, and I'm far from having all the rares (especially all the "good" ones). In the end, if I just waited and paid cash for the cards I needed/wanted, I'd be financially better off, but I'd have narrowed my gameplaying flexibility because I couldn't just start pulling cards out of the binder and construct new decks altogether. What does that have to do with reprinting the power cards? Well, let's say I want the Lotus (I don't, but just for example). The base-line price (lower Scrye) right now is $275 for an Unlimited version. Let's also go with WotC releasing the requested "power reprints" in a 125-card Chronicles II that has a limited print run (1 million of each uncommon card sheet). If the Lotus were reprinted in this way, 1/5 of all Magic players would gain access to the card (and all the other U1 reprints on those sheets). If I remember right, there are 22 cards per sheet. So basically, I have a 1/44 chance of pulling the Lotus in each pack I buy. Even buying a whole box of 36 packs doesn't guarantee that I'll pull one. Since I don't have the resources to just up and buy a box (I'll buy 2 boxes worth over time, but not 1 full box at one time). This further increases the randomness of my pulls. I buy 36 packs and don't get the Lotus. I did get some other good cards (even in multiple), but no Lotus. Having spent my initial resources (the $$$), I now turn to the secondary resource, trading. Now, since these cards were only printed to satiate the newer T1 players (and *maybe* small-time collectors), having more than one of any card does me no good so I can trade off those extra cards for the one I want.... That is, if I can find someone who was lucky enough to pull 2 or 3 reprinted Lotus (one to collect, one to use, one to trade) and still needs 4 or 5 of the other rares. If they pulled 3 Lotus, chances are good they have enough of the other cards, too. So, on to the tertiary market: buying from a dealer. Dealers often don't pay anywhere near "book" on cards they buy (they go a little higher if they trade, but some don't trade, only buy and sell). Thus, those extra rares aren't worth as much toward the Lotus as in straight trading. If I'm lucky, I can trade several extras and get the Lotus for a low cash output. Usually, I'm not that lucky. Now back to the core question, "What would the dealer ask for a Lotus?" He bought several boxes, so his accumulation is closer to the "average" (pulling 1 in 44). If he bought 10 boxes, that's 360 rares, of which means he pulled 8 Lotus. Based on the 1 per 44 paradigm the base value of the Lotus (and any other rare) is 44X where X = price (at retail cost to consumer) per booster pack. If X = $4 then the reprinted Lotus is (base value) worth $176. Now that price is modified by other factors. (Can I sell a card still in print for $176? No. People would just keep buying $4 packs and hope to get lucky.) But if the U1 cards are what are in demand, then the price is going to be at least $4 (covering my inital expenses as a dealer). So my price per in print reprinted Lotus lies somewhere between $4 and $176. But where? Now is where "simple" supply and demand comes into play. You (the dealer) have 8 Lotus to sell. I (the consumer) want one. How many other people frequenting that shop want one? I play at a shop with about 14 regulars—10 of whom would actively seek the Lotus (in this case I include myself). The owner of the shop (being a small shop) *might* get 1 Lotus. As a long shot, 2. So the "demand" is between 10:1 and 5:1. Now back to our scenario: You have 8 (being a pretty big-time shop owner and all), and there are 40 customers who would actively seek the 8 Lotus (5:1—which, as I reflect, is exactly what the player to printed number was). By selling other cards you've pulled, you have recouped about 50% of your initial costs in buying 10 boxes of Chronicles II (including standard profit margin). You want to recoup the remaing cost/profit with the 8 Lotus. How much do you charge? Selling those packs at $4 a pop, you would have made $1440 (cost + profit). You've recouped $720 from cards you've already sold and need to recoup another $720 from the most in-demand card, the Lotus (knowing with 40 seekers, you'll surely get 8 takers). $90. The reprinted Lotus would be "worth" $90 (not the $200 I mentioned in my inital article, but more on that later). In buying 36 packs, I spent $144. Had I waited and just bought the one card I wanted, I would have saved $54. That seems like a decent verification of the assessment of what a reprinted Lotus would sell for on the secondary market. If your shop's demand is 10:1 instead of 5:1, then the price could easily be $125-$150 (although you risk losing out to competition elsewhere, so you don't go that high and set the price at $100). Of course, by this assessment, *all* rares should be $90 (but remember all the rest which weren't so in-demand only netted you half your costs put together). I can get a playable, "original" Mox for $125, I wouldn't pay $90 for a reprint of it when I could either pull one (or the more valuable Lotus) from an in-print pack. It would only be worth about $20-$30 *tops* (seeing as there are 5 Moxen and only 1 Lotus). I can get an original Time Walk for $130; it's reprint would probably run $30-40. In short, the reprints (provided they were in a limited set) would net about 1/3 to 1/4 what the "originals" go for. So 8 of your P9 would range between $20 and $50 reprinted and the Lotus would be about $90. Now, simple supply and demand gets skewed because we add an unknown variable to the mix—the collector. They don't want to play the Lotus, they want to complete their Chronicles II set; perhaps they want to have 1 of every version of the Lotus; maybe they want to horde as many as possible to drive the demand (and price) up before they trade/sell; maybe they want a mint Lotus to keep and another to play. Whatever their fetish is, the collector will soon start to drive the prices higher. Why? Because the collectors decrease the supply available to the players. And while it reflects on supply and demand, it's not simple, and it's a *direct opposite* effect than what you postulate. In fact, if the Lotus were to hit the market again, it would work out to be a $90 card. After a couple months (as available supply of unopened packs in the store decreases and collectors further decrease the supply of secondary, single card sales) the price begins to creep upward. After I've spent several months buying packs to no avail and I break down to buy the card I need, the Lotus, it very well may be reaching a street value of $150-200, thanks to the collectors/horders (think Cursed Scroll/Mox Diamond here—believe me, it's happening just this way). And once the Chronicles II goes OOP, the price will stay at about $150-200. What would be the effect on the A/B/UN Lotus? Sure, price for the "originals" would drop (not nearly so much if they use different art, though) because players demands would be temporarily appeased. But down the road (after about a year), the price would remain pretty close to where it is (thanks to collectors), maybe $10 or $20 lower at most. Where the biggest impact would be felt is in the lower value cards, such as the dual lands. I can get a Revised dual for $10. A CII version would be $4-5. This would probably drop the value of Rev. down to $6-8, where it would stay. Likewise, reprinting Savannah Lions (even as a U1, but probably a C1 or 2) would make its CII value around $2.50 or $3 and bring its Rev/4E value down to $4. Swords to Plowshares would be similar (as a U3... But, no! That would make our U1 ratios higher, upping their price! But I digress...) becoming a $.50 card and making other StPs (4E/IA) worth about $1-$1.50. All the reprinting would concern, then, is getting the T1 "power" cards into the hands of "second generation" players (those beginning after 4E was introduced). It would also help the newest players (in less than a year) get T1.5 quality cards. As far as impact on gameplay, the established T1 elite would probably look unfavorably on the "newbies" flooding their playing environment. But, oh well. T1 (and T1.x) is known for its status quo reluctance to change. They'd just have to deal with it. Sorry to make this so long, I didn't intend for it to be this in depth, but I thought I should clarify how I derived my cost ratios. Joel Moyer